The State of the Jews

Am I the only pessimist left standing on this business of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of statehood?

The Atlantic Wire, the blog section of the Atlantic magazine, juxtaposes my view on this with three other commentators extolling the idea. For the record, I wrote that unilateral statehood would give the Palestinians nothing while freeing Israel’s right-wing government from its standing obligations.

The other commentators, on the other hand, didn’t even try to deal with the question in strategic terms.

Yossi Sarid, as is his wont, is hopeful and optimistic to the point of irrelevance: “When he declares independence, Abbas should call upon the Jews living in the state of Palestine to preserve the peace and to do their part in building up the new country as full and equal citizens, enjoying fair representation in all of its institutions.”

Juan Cole is inexplicably paranoid: “Since the Netanyahu government is about the least likely government to negotiate a Palestinian state within 1967 borders you could imagine, the Palestinians are giving up any hopes that talks will lead anywhere. Moreover, since Netanyahu has secret plans to thousands of further Israeli houses on Palestinian land in the next few years, time is short.”

This is just plain weird. First of all, Netanyahu doesn’t need “secret plans.” There are perfectly non-secret construction plans available for public viewing in the Housing and Construction Ministry. Second, the non-negotiable Palestinian demands aren’t just about borders, but also about refugees, Jerusalem and other issues. Third, on Cole’s doubts about Netanyahu’s intentions, he would do well to remember that both Sinai and Gaza – two withdrawals that included dismantling settlements and resettling thousands of Jews – were carried out by right-wing governments.

Finally, Chris Hedges seals the debate by comparing Palestine to all sorts of non-comparable places: “It worked in Kosovo. It worked in Georgia. And it will work in Palestine.”

But it didn’t work in Chechnya or Kurdistan, and worked only partially in Scotland and the Basque country – because these are all completely different situations.

Consider: Unlike in Kosovo, Israelis have been willing to withdraw from Palestine for over a decade (according to Tel Aviv University’s annual Peace Index). Unlike in either Georgia or Kosovo, Palestine has Hamas waiting in the wings to take over. Unlike in either Georgia or Kosovo, Israel is neither Russian nor Serbian in its intentions or in its political capacity for brutality.

Besides, supporting unilateral independence implies a trust in the current Palestinian leadership to get it right – to build institutions, to construct a national economy. Does Hedges trust them to do this?

The occupation is bad, undemocratic and temporary – even according to Israel’s own laws. But should the PA, which has suffered for almost two decades mainly from its own corrupt and incompetent leadership, unceremoniously jettison the entire Oslo process in the hope that more UN pressure will give them independence and prosperity? Will the need to negotiate over Jerusalem, refugees and borders disappear because Cuba, Sweden and Russia recognize Ramallah and Nablus as a “state” rather than an autonomous “authority?”

Kurdistan is experiencing a love affair with its lost Jewish community, and even calling on the region’s Jews, most of whom have been Israelis since the 1950s, to return to the region.

I share the first article in full below because the original is in Hebrew. Following that is an analysis on the significance of the poll. Both are written by the always-interesting Jacky Hugi. The first, dated 21 September, is titled From Kurdistan, With Love:

An overwhelming majority of the Kurds in northern Iraq support close relations with Israel, and view them as vital for shaping the future of the nascent Kurdish state—this is shown by an updated poll conducted by a polling institute based in Irbil, capital of the Kurdish region, the full details of which have reached Ma’ariv.

According to the data, 87.5 percent of the respondents believe that there are deep and historical relations between the two peoples — the Kurds and the Israelis. 61.4 percent of them call upon the autonomous Kurdish government to launch talks in the economic and cultural areas with Israel, as a preliminary stage to full relations. Most of them (60 percent) even reject secret relations, as is customary in some Arab states, and demand that they be made public.

The poll was conducted by the Point institute for polls and strategic studies, and it questioned 1,000 men and women in the large cities Irbil, Sulaimaniya, Duhok, Mosul and Kirkuk. The pollster who conducted the poll, researcher and journalist Khader Domli, believes that the results have effectively decided the question of the Kurdish public’s desire for relations with Israel. This is contrary to the official position of the Kurdish leadership, according to the time is not yet ripe for this.

“This poll showed that a large percentage of Kurdistan’s citizens, which reaches 68.4 percent, believes that the Kurds would benefit from strengthening their ties with the State of Israel,” Domli writes in the conclusions of the study, “perhaps the reason is that many respondents believe that Israel will forever remain strong and a major player in shaping policy in the region.”

The pollsters also queried the respondents whether it would be best to sever ties with Israel altogether. Only nine percent responded in the affirmative, and the overwhelming majority (71.4 percent) said “no.” In addition, most Kurds (59.2 percent) believe that Israel sees them as a strategic ally, as in the past. Finally, nearly 67 believe that the relations with the State of Israel have an important role in building the independent Kurdish state, which will be established in the future.

Q: Are there historical ties between the Kurdish and Israeli leaderships?
Yes: 87.5%; No: 2.6%; Don’t know: 9.9%

Q: Do the ties with Israel have a role in accelerating the establishment of a Kurdish state?
Yes: 66.9%; No: 11.8%; Don’t know: 21.3%

Q: Should the Kurds’ ties with Israel remain secret?
Yes: 21.3%; No: 60.4%; Don’t know: 18.3%

Then the analysis, titled If There’s a Paradise:

The results arising from the poll published here are unparalleled in Middle East countries. No Arab institute would conduct an attitude poll concerning Israel, since it is self-evident that the Jewish state is fated to be hated by its neighbors. And if the poll should be conducted nevertheless, and its results should be similar, chances are high that it will be shelved. And if it is not shelved, its sponsor will be covered by mud and muck by public opinion, which will spur them to hide themselves and their work alike.

Kurdish Jews in Rawanduz, Iraqi Kurdistan, 1905 (Wikipedia)

This reality, which very rarely shows any positive reference to Israel, also prevails in Egypt and Jordan today, which are states that have signed a peace agreement with Jerusalem and secretly cooperate with it against the radicalism of Hamas, Iran and Hizbullah. It also exists in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman, three Gulf emirates that intermittently conduct secret talks with Israel, but are afraid to admit it to their public.

And here, in the heart of the Middle East, within the torn and violent Iraq, subject to the whims and constant subversion of Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are leading the regional campaign against Israel—an entire society arises and says a resounding “yes” to contact with Jerusalem.

The relations between the Kurdish minority in Iraq, which numbers about 3.5 million people, and the Israeli governments, are rooted deep in history. Before emigrating to Israel in 1950, some 18,000 Jews lived in Kurdistan, in full harmony with their neighbors. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Kurds were considered Israel’s best friends in the hostile Arab world. With their assistance, Mossad agents rescued Jews and spied on Iraq, and sold them advanced weapons in return. The Israeli and the Jew still elicit great excitement and hope for the future in Kurdistan.

Whoever visits this region will find it difficult to ignore the accelerated development. The Kurds have autonomy, their own parliament, a president, a flag and security and economic stability. By any parameter, this is a flourishing country, a paradise for investors, but its neighbors refuse to grant it independence. Israelis visit the Kurdish region, commercial firms conduct business there, and Kurdish children with heart disease come here by the dozens and receive their lives as a gift.

In an interview given about three years ago to Al-Hayat, Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish region, voiced a principled stance in favor of opening an Israeli delegation in Irbil. Barzani would not have said this if he knew that the Kurdish street thought differently. The political leadership in Israel, which is immersed in its own affairs, is invited to raise its head above its urgent matters and respond to the wink sent from over the mountains.